Private sector analysis updates climate change risk atlas

Maplecroft, a leading UK-based risk analysis consultancy, has published an updated Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas. The Atlas identifies level of risk faced by countries, regions, and major cities from the impacts of climate change by the year 2025. According to a map released by Maplecroft, most of Canada is low risk but parts of the prairie provinces, Atlantic Canada, and coastal BC are in a somewhat higher risk category. By  far the greatest impacts are predicted to be in developing countries, including some with which Canada has important business and development assistance connections.

The risk assessments in the Maplecroft Atlas are based on three factors:

  • exposure to extreme climate-related events;
  • sensitivity of populations in terms of health, education, agricultural dependence and available infrastructure; and
  • the adaptive capacity of countries to combat the impacts of climate change.

Maplecroft predicts that, by 2025, 31% of global economic output will be based in countries facing ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ climate change risks. Countries facing extreme climate change risks include, but are not limited to, Bangladesh (at the most extreme risk), Sierra Leone, Haiti, South Sudan, Nigeria, DR Congo, Cambodia, Philippines, India, Pakistan and Viet Nam. Countries facing high climate change risks include Indonesia, Thailand, Kenya and China. Canadian companies doing business in these countries, and others in the extreme and high Maplecroft categories would be well advised, in GallonDaily’s opinion, to undertake a more detailed climate change risk assessment of their investments and partnerships.

Though the US is overall a low risk country, Maplecroft has identified some areas which face higher risks from climate change. these include the coastal regions of Florida, Louisiana, Georgia, South and North Carolina.

A synthesis of the Atlas is available at http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-global-economic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/  Access to the complete Atlas requires a subscription or payment of what is likely a relatively substantial fee.

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